碳减排和生育控制的文章以及几篇评论 钱学森对1980年“一胎化”政策制定的关键贡献
Oct 02

这本书2008年出版,叙述了1980年宋健的数学模拟如何荒诞地促成了中国强制一胎化政策的出台。

Just one child: science and policy in Deng’s China
By Susan Greenhalgh, Google Books

一胎化政策出台的全面经过可见梁中堂回忆录

一些书评:http://www.flipkart.com/just-one-child-susan-greenhalgh/0520253396-ezw3f9xspf

“This is a seminal contribution to policy making as a subject of anthropological study. But to say only this would obscure the often gripping and intricate story of Chinese expert politics, where rocket scientists seized the initiative in defining historic demographic policy. Only a master ethnographer like Greenhalgh could capture it all.”
–George Marcus, author of “Ethnography through Thick and Thin”

“China’s ‘one child’ policy is often dismissed in the West as the misguided work of an alien civilization with fundamentally flawed conceptions of human rights. Greenhalgh shows how, on the contrary, it was scientific aspirations and a thirst for high-tech rationality, imported from the military to the civilian sphere, that co-produced this particular excess of planning in the post-Mao era. This is not just a devastating critique of Chinese population policy, but a thought-provoking look at the dark side of the politics of science.”
–Sheila Jasanoff, Harvard University

“‘One child.’ With those two words, China launched one of the largest political, biological, and social upheavals of modern times. In a remarkably researched and thoughtful book, Susan Greenhalgh approaches this decades-long struggle armed with political science, anthropology, and science studies. The result is a book to be reckoned with in all these disciplines.”
–Peter L. Galison, Harvard University

“This is a superb work of scholarship, fundamentally altering our knowledge of one of the most important policies ever made in the People’s Republic of China, and the ways we go about knowing China. First, it is by far the most detailed study of the origins of one of the most controversial, significant, wide-ranging, and as the study makes clear, least understood decisions of the post-Mao China political system. China’s one-child family policy is rarely treated with detachment, and its origins have been obscured. This book is likely to be the definitive study on their origins. Second, the mode of analysis-an ethnography of elite decision-making combined with the science studies literature and elements of theories popular in anthropology and critical studies yields insights political scientists were not likely to have come up when employing the tools of their discipline. The book thus becomes an important case for the use of such modes of analysis in and of themselves, and opens new possibilities in how policy studies in China might be done. Third, beyond the specifics of how the one-child policy came into being and the mode of analysis, the book provides broader contributions on the nature of policy-making, agenda setting, uses of rhetoric, and how elements of the political culture affect the political system in China. The overall book is exemplary in all respects.”
–David Bachman, University of Washington

China’s one-child rule is unassailably one of the most controversial social policies of all time. In the first book of its kind, Susan Greenhalgh draws on twenty years of research into China’s population politics to explain how the leaders of a nation of one billion decided to limit all couples to one child. Focusing on the historic period 1978-80, when China was just reentering the global capitalist system after decades of self-imposed isolation, Greenhalgh documents the extraordinary manner in which a handful of leading aerospace engineers hijacked the population policymaking process and formulated a strategy that treated people like missiles. “Just One Child” situates these science- and policymaking practices in their broader contexts–the scientization and statisticalization of sociopolitical life–and provides the most detailed and incisive account yet of the origins of the one-child policy.

越来越多的人会认识到,“一胎化”政策是历史跟中华民族开的一个大大的苦涩的玩笑。

有些书评拿这个例子来批判所谓“科学主义”,但是哪有一门科学未经严肃论证就拿十亿人的百年前途做试验?

“Susan Greenhalgh的新书:“只生一个:邓时代中国的科学和政治””有一篇评论

  1. 双色球 Says:

    这个你敢去打假么?
    经证明十大巨奖均不容置疑
    问题一:
    第2009118期福彩双色球的投注金额为:215790310元,每注2元,也就是说彩池中共有107895155注,
    全国共开出一等奖93注,二等奖43注,三等奖622注,四等奖33028注,五等级奖662628注,六等奖
    为7350659注,根据福彩双色球游戏规则(http://www.zhcw.com/lottery/db_info.htm)
    计算每一等奖的中奖概率?计算2009118期每等奖的可信度概率?

    解:
    一等奖中奖概率:(C(6,6)*C(1,1))/(C(33,6)*C(16,1)) = 1/17721088
    = 5.642994380*10^(-8)
    二等奖中奖概率:(C(6,6)*C(15,1))/(C(33,6)*C(16,1)) = 15/17721088
    = 8.464491571*10^(-7)
    三等奖中奖概率:(C(6,5)*C(27,1)*C(15,1))/(C(33,6)*C(16,1)) = 162/17721088
    = 9.1416508963*10^(-6)
    四等奖中奖概率:(C(6,5)*C(27,1)*C(15,1)+(C(6,4)*C(27,2)*C(1,1)))/(C(33,6)*C(16,1))
    = 7695/17721088 = 4.34228417577*10^(-4)
    五等奖中奖概率:(C(6,4)*C(27,2)*C(15,1)+(C(6,3)*C(27,3)*C(1,1)))/(C(33,6)*C(16,1))
    = 137475/17721088 = 7.75770652456*10^(-3)
    六等奖中奖概率:(C(6,2)*C(27,4)*C(1,1)+C(6,1)*C(27,5)*C(1,1)+C(6,0)*C(27,6)*C(1,1))/((C(33,6)*C(16,1))
    = 1043640/17721088 = 5.8892546552*10^(-2)

    没有开奖前每注中头奖概率均为1/17721088。开奖后每一注中头奖的概率是服从0-1分布的,不是中了
    就是没有中。设Xi = 0 or 1(中奖=1,没有中奖=0),令X为中奖的总注数,
    可知Xi(i=1,2,3…107895155)是服从0-1分布:

    X = sigma(Xi) ~ B(107895155, 5.642994380*10^(-8))
    i=0..107895155

    注:phi(x)是标准正态分布函数, E(X)期望值,D(X)方差,sigma(Xi)求和

    对于一等奖有:
    E(X) = np = 107895155 * 5.642994380*10^(-8) = 6.088517533
    D(X) = npq = 107895155 * 5.642994380*10^(-8) * (1.0-5.642994380*10^(-8)) = 6.088517190
    有93注及以上中一等奖的可能性为:
    P{X>92} = 1-P{X42} = 1-P{X621} = 1-P{X33027} = 1-P{X662627} = 1-P{X7350658} = 1-P{X0} = 1-P{X 0.80
    可求得n=4,也就是中一等奖的注数不能大于4注有80%以上的可信度!

    问题三:
    以双色球第2009118期的彩池总107895155注为基础估算了其它十大巨奖每期中一等奖注数的可能性?

    解:十大巨奖每期彩池总注应该都在一亿数量级左右,假设其等于第2009118期的彩池总107895155注,
    结果在数量级上应该差不多:

    河南省安阳市彩民 2009年10月8日 3.59982832亿元 双色球第2009118期全国共中出93注一等奖
    可信概率:4.5086588812*10^(-272)

    广东省广州市彩民 2009年7月2日 96686660元 双色球第2009076期全国共中出29注一等奖
    可信概率:8.060213630*10^(-21)

    深圳市福田区彩民 2009年3月12日 5089万元 双色球09028期全国共中出41注一等奖
    可信概率:9.529790848*10^(-46)

    广东省珠海市彩民 2009年3月12日 5071万元 双色球09028期全国共中出41注一等奖
    可信概率:9.529790848*10^(-46)

    广东省珠海市彩民 2009年3月10日 5332万多元 双色球第2009027期全国共中出19注一等奖
    可信概率:8.355580602110*10^(-8)

    浙江省温州市彩民 2008年5月6日 5000万元 双色球第2008052期全国共中出13注一等奖
    可信概率:0.00254710715

    江苏省盐城彩民 2007年12月18日 4113.8360万 双色球第2007148期全国共中出59注一等奖
    可信概率:2.6298142707*10^(-102)

    甘肃省嘉峪关市彩民 2007年11月27日 1.13836968亿元 双色球第2007139期 全国共中出22注一等奖
    可信概率:5.6502462951*10^(-11)

    河北省唐山市乐亭县彩民 2006年10月12日 5000万元 双色球第2006120期全国共中出16注一等奖
    可信概率:0.00002949381962350390

    黑龙江省哈尔滨市彩民 2007年10月11日 6504.5685万元 双色球第2007119期全国共中出23注一等奖
    可信概率:3.59787005*10^(-12)

    结论:看贴一定要回帖!

发表评论

CAPTCHA Image
*